01-25-2026, 11:28 AM
US trade deficit plunges from $136B to $29B — lowest since 2009
The U.S. has lived with a massive trade deficit for decades. But under tariffs, that gap is suddenly narrowing — and much faster than many expected.
“On the trade balance, which we know is going to be a deficit, we’re expecting a number around $58 billion,” Santelli said on Thursday morning (1). As he read through the Commerce Department’s update, his tone shifted. “Buckle up, this is unreal! The movement in this number: -$29.4 billion — we cut it basically in half! We cut it in half!”
October’s $29.4 billion trade deficit didn’t just come in well below economists’ forecasts — it marked a 39% drop from September’s $48.1 billion gap (2).
In March 2025 it was $136 billion. Right now, it’s a whisker under $30 billion. We haven't been that small in a long time — I don't have enough records here to go back that far!” he said.
As it turns out, it’s the smallest trade deficit since June 2009.
Tariffs are designed to discourage imports and reshape trade flows, so the trend isn’t entirely unexpected. As Santelli noted, “Here’s the news on why it moved lower: Imports were down and exports were up.”
“Winning the trade war”
“The U.S. appears to be winning the trade war with tariffs curbing the imports of foreign goods, but America’s trading partners are not holding any grudge as they continue to buy more American goods and services,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds (3).
“So far, the forecasts for a U.S. recession are coming up dry as productivity continues to backstop growth.”
Recent data backs up that assessment. U.S. GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025 — the strongest pace since late 2023 and well above economists’ expectations for a 3.2% increase (4).
Some analysts see additional tailwinds ahead. Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, pointed to easing uncertainty, fiscal support and more accommodating monetary policy (5).
"We expect fading policy uncertainty, the boost from tax cuts and the recent loosening of monetary policy to mean the economy strengthens in 2026," Pearce said.
If you share this optimism, here’s a look at a few simple ways to position yourself for America’s growth in 2026 — and beyond.
“The best thing to do,” according to Warren Buffett
The U.S. stock market has been a powerful engine of wealth creation. “the only thing that’s really going up big? It’s the stock market and your 401(k)s (6).”
The benchmark S&P 500 returned 16% in 2025 and has gained roughly 82% over the past five years.
Of course, consistently picking winning stocks isn’t easy. That’s why legendary investor Warren Buffett argues that most people don’t need to pick individual companies at all to benefit from the stock market’s long-term growth.
“In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is own the S&P 500 index fund,” Buffett has famously stated (7). This approach gives investors exposure to 500 of America’s largest companies across a wide range of industries, providing instant diversification without the need for constant monitoring or active trading.
The beauty of this approach is its accessibility — anyone, regardless of wealth, can take advantage of it. Even small amounts can grow over time with tools like Acorns, a popular app that automatically invests your spare change.
Signing up for Acorns takes just minutes: Link your cards, and Acorns will round up each purchase to the nearest dollar, investing the difference — your spare change — into a diversified portfolio.
With Acorns, you can invest in an S&P 500 ETF with as little as $5 — and, if you sign up today with a recurring investment, Acorns will add a $20 bonus to help you begin your investment journey.
The U.S. has lived with a massive trade deficit for decades. But under tariffs, that gap is suddenly narrowing — and much faster than many expected.
“On the trade balance, which we know is going to be a deficit, we’re expecting a number around $58 billion,” Santelli said on Thursday morning (1). As he read through the Commerce Department’s update, his tone shifted. “Buckle up, this is unreal! The movement in this number: -$29.4 billion — we cut it basically in half! We cut it in half!”
October’s $29.4 billion trade deficit didn’t just come in well below economists’ forecasts — it marked a 39% drop from September’s $48.1 billion gap (2).
In March 2025 it was $136 billion. Right now, it’s a whisker under $30 billion. We haven't been that small in a long time — I don't have enough records here to go back that far!” he said.
As it turns out, it’s the smallest trade deficit since June 2009.
Tariffs are designed to discourage imports and reshape trade flows, so the trend isn’t entirely unexpected. As Santelli noted, “Here’s the news on why it moved lower: Imports were down and exports were up.”
“Winning the trade war”
“The U.S. appears to be winning the trade war with tariffs curbing the imports of foreign goods, but America’s trading partners are not holding any grudge as they continue to buy more American goods and services,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds (3).
“So far, the forecasts for a U.S. recession are coming up dry as productivity continues to backstop growth.”
Recent data backs up that assessment. U.S. GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025 — the strongest pace since late 2023 and well above economists’ expectations for a 3.2% increase (4).
Some analysts see additional tailwinds ahead. Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, pointed to easing uncertainty, fiscal support and more accommodating monetary policy (5).
"We expect fading policy uncertainty, the boost from tax cuts and the recent loosening of monetary policy to mean the economy strengthens in 2026," Pearce said.
If you share this optimism, here’s a look at a few simple ways to position yourself for America’s growth in 2026 — and beyond.
“The best thing to do,” according to Warren Buffett
The U.S. stock market has been a powerful engine of wealth creation. “the only thing that’s really going up big? It’s the stock market and your 401(k)s (6).”
The benchmark S&P 500 returned 16% in 2025 and has gained roughly 82% over the past five years.
Of course, consistently picking winning stocks isn’t easy. That’s why legendary investor Warren Buffett argues that most people don’t need to pick individual companies at all to benefit from the stock market’s long-term growth.
“In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is own the S&P 500 index fund,” Buffett has famously stated (7). This approach gives investors exposure to 500 of America’s largest companies across a wide range of industries, providing instant diversification without the need for constant monitoring or active trading.
The beauty of this approach is its accessibility — anyone, regardless of wealth, can take advantage of it. Even small amounts can grow over time with tools like Acorns, a popular app that automatically invests your spare change.
Signing up for Acorns takes just minutes: Link your cards, and Acorns will round up each purchase to the nearest dollar, investing the difference — your spare change — into a diversified portfolio.
With Acorns, you can invest in an S&P 500 ETF with as little as $5 — and, if you sign up today with a recurring investment, Acorns will add a $20 bonus to help you begin your investment journey.
